Committed to creating value in the art market. We deepen our market understanding, expand our network, and cultivate a diverse audience. We publish our newsletter targeting intelligent and inquisitive people who are not traditional art world participants. Recognizing a broad demand for insightful critique of art and the art world, plus an under explored dynamic interplay with the growing market for Digital Art, we are developing innovative products to engage and expand our audience and unlock value for our clients.
It's the "Quiet" Season (or is it?)
Published about 2 months ago • 10 min read
It's the "Quiet" Season (or is it?)
Published: Tuesday, 16 July 2024
Summer is here, various sporting tournaments are playing, our clients are on their yachts, and the art world moves to the “quiet season”. This gives us an opportunity to reflect on recent activity, discuss how quiet the “quiet season” actually is, and examine the calendar (and changing geography) of the art world.
First, a retrospective on the auction performances of the works discussed in recent newsletters:
Winston Churchill’s Inland View from Choisy, Switzerland sold for £420,000 at Christie’s Modern British and Irish Art evening sale on 6th June, comfortably within its estimate of £300-500k. Our newsletter was published on 12th June (after the auction), but we did agree it was a reasonable valuation.
Titian’s Flight into Egypt sold for £17.6 million ($22.1 million) at the Christie’s Old Masters sale on 2nd July. It set a new auction record for the artist but was towards the lower end of the £15-25m estimated range. Our 18th June newsletter argued that the distortions caused by the conservation work meant it wasn’t worth the low estimate; we kept our £15m and went on a girls trip to Croatia instead.
The individual pieces of the Ralph Goldenberg Collection went for a combined £17.3m, outperforming the estimates by ~£4.3m. Within this collection, Damien Hirst’s Forget sold for £156k (within the estimate), and Dan Flavin’s Untitled neon work [1] achieved £240k (above the £120-180k range). Happily for us: our 25th June and 2nd July newsletters were supportive, although I still think the collection was more valuable as a whole rather than as individual pieces.
These are positive results for the health of the auction market (and for my credibility as an art advisor and newsletter writer, lol). All results avoided selling below the price estimates, and especially the worst-case scenario of being “bought-in” i.e. where the bids do not meet the reserve price and the artwork fails to sell.
I was curious to see if my opinion of these works would change post-auction, after the public exercised its financial opinion in the auction room. So far, the answer still appears to be no: I still think the Titian is a bit weak, and Flavin’s neon light is amazing. Still, it is worth bearing in mind that the prevalence of headline-grabbing auction prices makes it harder to separate the commercial from non-commercial value of artwork... more on that in future newsletters.
As you may have noticed, I haven't introduced a new artwork for discussion in this week's newsletter. That’s because there’s no major auctions going on… so what happens now? *GASP*
The "Quiet Season"
When I say “quiet” season, that’s because the art world traditionally slows down around the peak of summer, especially in Europe. Conveniently, that’s about the same time as Wimbledon, the Euros and the Olympics, and also allows the UHNWI
[3] to holiday on their private yachts in Porto Cervo or wherever (football- and the weather - didn't come home in the UK :( )
I don't mean there's absolutely nothing going on: auctions and art fairs still occur during this time. The focus shifts to what is typically the smaller and less prestigious categories like books and manuscripts, memorabilia, furniture and even natural history objects: for example, there is Geek Week with Sotheby’s showcasing Apex
[4] alongside space regalia, and Christie’s is hosting an Art + Tech Summit in New York.
Apex, the stegosaurus headlining Sotheby’s Geek Week.
The seasonal cadence of buying and selling art has evolved into a global art world calendar that all market participants can follow. This calendar spans across its major hubs and satellite cities. New York remains the head honcho of the art market with London and Hong Kong following in close competition… although that may be changing (more on that below). Each participant has a slightly different timeline within this calendar (unless you're the buyer/investor, in which case you’re welcome to bring your wallet to all the events). The dominant events are the major art auctions, and the major art fairs.
Major Auctions
Sotheby’s and Christie's dominate the art-auction market, and they typically concentrate their most prestigious auctions in London and New York, in the Spring and Autumn
[5]. Both auction houses split their auction seasons into evening and day sales.
Evening and day sales occur on successive days, 2-3 times annually. The evening sale is the most prestigious; it is the most curated event where the auction house looks to include not only the highest priced material, but also the most desirable or art historically significant piece in a tightly choreographed selection of 30-70 works (the exact number will vary with the market climate). They love to boost their profile with record-setting prices on fabulous works e.g. Leonardo da Vinci’s Salvator Mundi (still sus that it's his) dominated Christie’s November 2017 New York auction, while the sale of Meules (Haystacks) by Claude Monet enhanced Sotheby’s May 2019 New York evening sale.
The day sales are usually further divided into a morning and afternoon session, organized into themes. For example, the morning might open with more historical post-war material [6], shifting to an ultra-contemporary selection in the afternoon. The number of auction items is much higher, often up to 300-400 works; the volume and lower price points allow a much wider range of buyers and clients to participate. The increased volume also means auction houses typically make more money from their day sales than their evening sales despite massive price sales in some of the evening auctions.
The day sales are usually further divided into a morning and afternoon session, organized into themes. For example, the morning might open with more historical post-war material
[6], shifting to an ultra-contemporary selection in the afternoon. The number of auction items is much higher, often up to 300-400 works; the volume and lower price points allow a much wider range of buyers and clients to participate. The increased volume also means auction houses typically make more money from their day sales than their evening sales despite massive price sales in some of the evening auctions.
Mid-season sales have proliferated over the last decade, and function as standalone day sales. They provide additional transactional channels between the major Spring and Autumn auctions, as well as catering to more niche markets and targeted audiences… this is where we are right now, i.e. the “quiet season”.
Major Art Fairs
Besides the major auctions, the major art fairs are the other big events of the art year. The auctions and fairs are generally timed to work in tandem to add convenient overlap of events without conflicting priorities to optimize the time of the collectors and investors. The calendar season is not just for admiring and potentially purchasing art for pleasure or investment: the social aspect and community is a key element of each spectacle. It is for socializing, networking, being seen (yet remaining anonymous to the public), traveling, staying up to date on trends with in-person art viewings.
Scene from Frieze London
(To underline the point that art shows are about the social aspect… no-one in the picture above seems to be looking at the art?)
For art fairs the calendar follows a similar timeline, and conveniently lines up in location and date with the major auctions. The art fair calendar roughly looks like this.
Major Art Fair Calendar: Frieze LA: February-March TEFAF Maastricht: March Art Basel Hong Kong: March Venice Biennale: April - November Frieze New York: May (the weekend before TEFAF) TEFAF New York: May (the weekend after Frieze) Art Basel, Switzerland: June Frieze Seoul: September The Armory Show New York: September (Part of the Frieze organization) Frieze London: October Art Basel Miami: December
Why These Ones?
This is not a full list of all the art fairs in the world; there are hundreds. It is, however, a list of the commonly accepted “Major” fairs… which opens the question: why these ones?
Lewis Hamiton and Sebastian Vettel give us part of the answer: Cash is King. This list is very Old World, Old Money dominated. Buying and or selling art in these environments, especially at certain times of year, comes with the advantageous benefits of tax breaks and financial planning considerations. Conveniently, when the art world calendar begins in January, there is an influx of activity in auctions and art fairs that runs parallel with the UK and USA tax season. The art calendar meets a well-timed end in June for the “summer break” (curious since Hong Kong taxes are due at the beginning of June). Most major art fairs are only a short private plane ride from a tax haven… though to be fair that’s probably a sad reflection on the number of tax havens, rather than any fault of the organizers.
You’ll notice there are several institutions that dominate the list: Art Basel, TEFAF (The European Fine Art Fair), and Frieze each run multiple fairs
[7]. This is because smaller art fairs tend to get acquired by one of these institutions as they grow in popularity and demonstrate profitability.
The list is also shifting east, with the sustained rise of Asia-Pacific and Middle Eastern economies influencing the art market calendar. The Art Assembly is an affiliation of art fairs in Singapore, Taiwan and Tokyo that are increasing in popularity. Art Dubai and India Art Fair are the largest art fairs in their regions. I’m curious to see if they end up on the list of “majors” in a few years: my money is on Singapore and Dubai getting there fast.
The influence of money can also be shown in this reflection: SP-Arte in São Paulo is a long-standing institution and is the largest in the region but struggles to attract the biggest names. The easiest explanation is money: South America simply hasn’t had the same wealth creation, especially of the ultra-high net worth folks who dominate the top end of art buying.
The auction houses, for all their well-deserved (and hard-won) reputations, also follow the Jerry Maguire “Show Me The Money” mantra: the list of what counts as prestigious enough to make the evening sales is an overlapping Venn diagram of the list as what dominates their revenue. It is safe to assume if, for example, “English Furniture” suddenly became the most profitable sector, then Sotheby’s and Christies wouldn’t be shy about promoting that category to Spring evening auction status. Look at the diagram below to see how much these other categories, like English Furniture, would have to generate to constitute as "major."
I don’t mean to be too cynical: money flows pay the bills, and also demonstrate the rising popularity of different artists and art styles. The geo-demographic shift towards Asia-Pacific brings a much-needed rebalancing of the legacy art world, along with a rich and deep history of different artistic traditions. Still, it also reveals another, slightly darker, side of the art market and its financial drivers. We will talk more about the influence of money on art (positive and negative) in future newsletters; we certainly won’t be the first to open a bottle of wine and ponder “Well, what is art, really?” lol.
So, what does little old me and my textbook of opinions have to finally say on the matter? The art world calendar reveals a lot about current and future behavior on both the buy and sell side of the industry. It is important to keep an eye out on these market sectors and their growth as it coincides with the rise of Asia and the Middle East. It occurs to me that the major art fairs and auction houses have mostly benefited from the globalization of their business: sure, they have to invest resources, build new networks and embrace new tastes and artistic styles, but the absorption of these new markets has not fundamentally challenged their business model. The rise of digital art could, though… so we’ll have to take a look at that market soon.
[1] Note to self: research if calling a work “Untitled” increases or decreases its perceived value ;)
[2] The final “hammer price” you hear at auctions is neither the price the buyer pays, nor the money the seller receives… Auction houses are exceptionally skilled at adding fees to everyone involved. The buyer’s premium is an additional percentage fee paid on top of the final hammer price by the buyer at auction. It is calculated on a sliding scale that reduces from 25-15% depending on the auction house once a certain threshold is passed. The reserve price is the minimum price threshold which bids above can result in a sale and those below will render the work unsold or bought in. By law it cannot exceed the low estimate, however it can be adjusted at any time up until the sale. An example of this scenario was laid out in our last newsletter.
[4] Apex: a fine near-complete stegosaurus specimen, and the first instance in which a dinosaur specimen has been brought to the auction market. My 8-year old cousin might think he’s not a classic art-market participant, but he would LOVE Apex.
[5] In England, Autumn. Etymology from the Middle English autumpne, derived from the Old French automne, and (obviously) the Latin autumnus.
In America, Fall. Etymology from the fact that leaf fall down.
[6]“Post-War” is commonly used to refer to the art time period following WW2. There is a very topical and interesting Baer Faxt podcast on this term and the rising confusion amongst the next generation of buyers and collectors as well as those from cultures where WW2 was not as culturally significant, as to which war it refers to as we move further away in time from WW2.
[7] They also run into geographical confusion in their naming… The European Fine Art Fair New York? If there’s an Art Basel Miami, does that mean that Art Basel should actually be Art Basel Basel? Note to self: don’t start a company named after a place.
Did you enjoy this newsletter?
We'd love to hear from you! Get in touch at Antonia@ambirisana.com
Committed to creating value in the art market. We deepen our market understanding, expand our network, and cultivate a diverse audience. We publish our newsletter targeting intelligent and inquisitive people who are not traditional art world participants. Recognizing a broad demand for insightful critique of art and the art world, plus an under explored dynamic interplay with the growing market for Digital Art, we are developing innovative products to engage and expand our audience and unlock value for our clients.